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Prediction for CME (2022-08-15T05:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-15T05:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21190/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption to the south of Active Region 13079 near S22W42 as seen in SDO AIA 193/304 imagery starting around 2022-08-15T04:20Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-18T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Prediction from SIDC Ursigram:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20816
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Aug 2022, 1246UT
A coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO C2 from 05:00 UT August 15 to the south-west was associated to a large filament eruption near NOAA AR3077. This was predominantly directed to the south west but a glancing blow at Earth is possible on August 18.

Lead Time: 43.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-08-16T13:36Z

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